W.E. (Bill) Belliveau

742-2019-July 6– It’s all about the numbers...

There’s been a lot written in the last few months about the need for municipal reform in New Brunswick,

healthcare and education. Most of the commentary has come from academics and retired public servants

– virtually nothing from our politicians. Municipal reform is discussed in terms of rising costs, the need for

greater efficiency, the unfair application of property taxes and the sharing of tax revenue. We hear about

healthcare in terms of doctor and nurse shortages even though we have the highest per capita number of

doctors and nurses in Canada. We talk about a shortage of paramedics, unmanned ambulances and half

day waits in hospital emergency rooms. In education, we hear about low literacy rates, the issues of

inclusiveness, French immersion, the high rate of high-school drop-outs, the cost of post-secondary

education and the burden of student loans.

It’s rare that any of these issues are discussed in the context of populaltion size and distribution over

73,440 square kilometres. We have an estimated 761,000 people living in New Brunswick. All we hear

about our population is the loss of our young people, an aging workforce and a growing seniors

population. We have more than 300 municipal governance units in New Brunswick including, cities,

towns, incorporated villages and Local Service Districts to serve an estimated 761,000 people. It’s a

recipe for waste and ineffeciency. We enjoy few economies of scale. We suffer from a duplication of

services. We over-invest in under-utilized heavy equipment (snow removal and fire-fighting). When

anyone mentions gte word efficiency, we immediately think amalgamation and run for the trees.

Here’s the reality. The cost of service delivery in rural communities is twice the cost of delivery of services

in urban communities, yet residents of rural communities pay considerably less in property taxes than

urban residents because tney receive fewer municpal services. In the twenty-first century, we can’t afford

the cost of more than three hundred municipal governance units to serve an estimated 761,000 people.

We can’t afford to subsidize our rural communities at the expense of our urban communities. Rural

residents use the services of urban centres, they should pay part of the cost.

In 2019, an estimated 65 percent of New Brunswick’s population live within the Cencus Metropolitan Area

(CMA) of Moncton, Saint John and Fredericton. Another 20 percent live in the CMAs of Bathurst,

Miramichi, Edmundston, Campbellton, Grand Falls, Woodstock, Sussex, Caraquet and St. Stephen. At

most, we need a dozen municipal governments in this province and we need a single property tax rate

applied to the assessed market value of homes, businesses and property.

On the matter of healthcare, at most we need half a dozen hospitals supported by a primary care system

that includes a network of 7/24 “urgent care” clinics (ambulatory care in a dedicated medical facility

outside of a traditional hospital emergency department) and a highly trained team of paramedics

operating from a fleet of high speed ambulances equipped with the latest in mobile trauma technology.

That would help solve our shortage of healthcare professionals and improve service dramatically.

On the subject of education, population numbers and distribution are again just as important as they are

in municipal governance. We have more than 300 schools K-12 in New Brunswick many of them half full

or less.. At most, we probably need amix of about 48 schools across K-6 primary, 7-9 middle school and

10-12 high school. We have an excellent community college and university system in New Brunswick. We

probably need to add a technical institute and a medical school but most importantly, we need to find the

ways and means of keeping more of our young people in post-secondary education and more of our

garduates in New Brunswick.

W.E. (Bill) Belliveau

One way to do this might be some sort of civic ROTC scholarship program attached to a five year, post

graduation contract of residency and employment. If we want to be a truly bilingual province, we need to

have a single bilingual school system K-12. All of this could lead to a better educated work-force. To

support and retain that workforce, we also have to invest in productivity to get rid of low wage jobs that

few people want to do anymore and to make us more price competitive in global trade markets.

That means fish plants run by robots. That means forest harvesting done by roboticized machines. That

means high-tech farming. That means increased scale and automation in our manufacturing sector. That

means a greater emphasis on reasearch and devlopment in our universities, in our hospitals and our IT

sector. It could also mean the end of employment insurance subsidies in our seasonal industries.

We can no longer hope to survive on federal transfers and the comfort of institutional services in every

village. It’s too expensive and we can’t afford it. Most significantly, it’s too hard and often impossible to

attract and retain the skilled people to run these institutional services and live in small communities,

distant from the intellectual stimulous of larger communities. We need to convince our young people there

is a future for them in New Brunswick and we need to aggressively recruit new residents who will bring

new ideas and new businesses to this province. We need to double our population. 761,000 people is

barely enough to form a city. It’s certainly not enough to support a provincial government.

Nothing will change in New Brunswick without a fundamental change in how we organize ourselves as

people and how we increase our value through education and innovation. We need leadership that

understands the need for change and we need framework legislation that commits to specific goals,

defines what’s needed to achieve those goals and maps out the road to succss.

W.E. (Bill) Belliveau is a Shediac resident and business consultant. He can be contacted at

heronplace1@rogers.com